While the West Virginia Democrat won in 2018 despite Trump campaigning against him, Manchin is unlikely to win in 2024.
After passing the famous Inflation Reduction Bill on August 7th, 2022, Manching teased that Trump campaigning against him will help him in 2024 as it helped him in 2018. Regardless of whether Manchin acknowledges the challenges or not, there are a few strong indicators against his re-election:
- He won the state with a 60% vote in 2012 when Barack Obama was on the ticket that year. In 2018, he won barely a 49% vote against his opponent’s 46%. Keep in mind that Trump was not on the ballot in 2018. Whether Manchin’s Republican challenger was a great candidate, that’s a different topic. In 2024, Trump is very likely to be on the ballot. As weird as it is, Trump is more popular in 2022 than he was in 2018.
- West Virginia has historically elected Democrats despite being a conservative state. That changed in 2015 when the people elected a Republican senator. The state’s important offices are now represented by Republicans.
- West Virginia is dependent on the fossil fuel economy. Manchin’s fight against the very livelihood of West Virginians shows how much he is disconnected from West Virginia. Why wouldn’t he especially when he hangs out with the elites of the world in Davos who know nothing about the lost American Dream that West Virginians once had? West Virginia recently blacklisted banks who are for ESG. Likely, they won’t invest in any funds with an ESG angle. That’s a stark difference in priority between Manchin and State.
It is not about Manchin. The trend is just against the Democrat party in West Virginia. The odds of increasing a Republican share from 46% to 49% are very high.